Abdullah Gül ( 11th President of the Republic of Türkiye) attended the Delphi Economic Forum and shared his thoughts on the future of regional and global affairs.
It was an opportunity to discuss the current crisis in the Middle East and its likely long-term consequences. He also touched on the constructive role that Turkey plays in its region and toward its neighbors, including Greece.
His Speech:
Distinguished audience,
Ladies and gentlemen,
It is a pleasure to join you at the Delphi Forum. I thank the organisers and our Greek friends for their hospitality.
We are meeting during a period of global crisis and uncertainty. The rules-based order and international norms are being degraded by some of the most powerful states.
The recent attacks against Gaza, Lebanon and Iran have been devastating. These operations disregarded international rules. They caused severe humans rights abuses. The situation in Gaza amounted to a genocide, according to experts and UN reports.
The direct American involvement in Iran made it a turning point. This operation will have longer term strategic results with regional and global consequences. I want to mention some major blows it caused.
The first blow was to the rules-based international order.
A striking feature of this operation was the lack of effort to create a legal basis. There was no attempt to render it legitimate. Washington did not seek international approval. Even American officials admit that Tehran did not pose an imminent threat to the United States.
By acting this way, the US is opening the door to illegal actions by other powers. The limits of what is permissible are becoming elastic. How can Washington accuse others, when it is breaking the rules?
The second blow was to the reputation and influence of the US itself.
Israel and its lobbies have managed to push the American President into attacking Iran. The decision-making process regarding the use of force by the biggest military power has come to light. It is shocking and frightening to see how death or life decisions have been taken.
The American rhetoric on “destroying an entire civilisation” has damaged its image as the leader of the democratic world. It is unfortunate to see where the US leadership has drifted. It was not the Iranian civilisation, but the American image that was destroyed in the eyes of the world.
The US has now become part of Israel’s actions by bombing schools in Iran and fueling conflict in the region. American allies will have more difficulty in trusting it.
In fact, Gulf states are loosing confidence in American power. The US has become an unpredictable partner who is ready to risk the entire region to blatantly support Israel. Washington was supposed to be a source of safety. Instead, it became the reason why Gulf cities were hit by missiles.
China now seems capable to increase its sway in the region. It established itself as a power with the 2023 deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Following the latest developments, Beijing could be seen as a more predictable partner than Washington. It already had the economic upper-hand. It might now win the strategic game.
A third blow caused by the American attack on Iran is to the future of the regional order.
It was not a surprise that as a response Iran targeted US military facilities located in the Gulf. Hostilities will not vanish overnight, with long term consequences reshaping the dynamics in the region.
The Gulf will need new security policies. It will diversify its security partnerships and options, due to the vulnerability of trusting American protection. This will also mean diverting resources from the economy for defense spending. The economy and welfare of the region will be affected.
The Strait of Hormuz is another new problem. Previously, it had a clear status and was open to navigation. It contributed to the American strategy of safe energy transit in the region. Now, the status of the strait has become a matter of debate and negotiation. We will see how it settles.
The operation damaged global energy supply and the Gulf countries. The US and Israel have failed at regime-change. At a heavy price, Iran is resisting American attacks in a conventional conflict.
The clear result of this war is that it became a lose-lose equation. All parties ended up losing. Lessons should be taken.
Iran’s policies in the last forty years did not help the welfare of its people. Tehran’s rhetoric in foreign policy did not produce gains for the Islamic cause on Palestine. This rhetoric was even exploited by Israel to get the blind support of the West.
Both sides of the conflict should show flexibility to reach a peace agreement. This would benefit the stability of the whole region.
A comprehensive settlement would decrease the threat perception of the Iranian leadership. In this scenario, instead of worrying of regime change, Tehran should re-assess its threat perception and use the opportunity to undertake domestic reforms. Steps on fundamental rights and freedoms, together with structural and economic changes would benefit the country.
Israel may see itself as a victor, but this is self-deceiving. It is now globally more isolated than ever. It is responsible of the pain and suffering in the region. As long as its policies of invasion, illegal settlement and so-called buffer zones on neighbor countries continue, the negative feeling in the region will not change. The leaders of Middle-Eastern countries cannot risk any normalisation with Tel- Aviv. This is unfortunate for the prospect of peace in the region.
Distinguished Audience,
We are at an important point in history, where rational actors are needed. Following the trans-Atlantic rift, Europe should stop underestimating itself and show the courage to speak up. It should actively defend a just solution to the problems in our region. After all, Europe is the cradle of democracy and human rights.
But such soft-power alone is not sufficient. Washington has become an unreliable actor for Europe too. The US signalled that it will no longer be the security provider of the continent.
I recently argued that Europe needs a grand project to reach strategic autonomy. This cannot be done at a small scale. The EU alone is not enough. This project should be based on a broad vision, encompassing the continent at large, reaching from the UK to Türkiye.
Ankara has the military capabilities and strategic reach that Europe needs today. In turn, remaining inside this coalition of democracies is important for Türkiye’s future.
Ankara has a position of geo-strategic significance. It contributes to stability in the region. The Black Sea Grain Corridor and diplomatic efforts in Palestine and Iran are recent examples.
Turkish-Greek problems and Cyprus should not become an obstacle to this new European security project.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Illegitimate attacks in the Middle-East once again caused chaos and suffering. The results will be long-term and dramatic.
It must be clear that in the nuclear age, we need more rules and norms, not less. The world needs powers that defend international laws.
The lack of rules might seem like an advantage for some powerful countries. But this is an illusion. We should be staunch supporters of a strong and just international system. Working together toward this objective remains more important than ever.
Thank you for your attention.
